Four numbers and you see the total
Loss calculator: how much refused parcels cost your shop
The loss and pickup-rate calculator shows how many hryvnias a month an online shop spends shipping cash-on-delivery parcels that buyers never collected, and how much margin never reaches the till. Enter your COD volume, pickup rate, average order value and margin, and the return-loss estimate appears instantly.
−16,800 UAH/mo
Example calculation: 1,200 COD parcels, 86% pickup rate, 80 UAH shipping + 20 UAH packaging
Pickup-rate and loss calculator
Don’t know your pickup rate? Take COD parcels sent 20–60 days ago and divide the collected ones by the sum of collected and returned. Or get a [free audit](page:audit).
You lose at least
−16,800 UAH/mo
on refused deliveries (up to 30,240 грн if returns are paid)
168 refusals a month · Lost margin: 42,840 грн
Could be won back
+14,600 UAH/mo
assuming +3,5 pp pickup (a hypothesis we test in a pilot with a control group)
“Auto” plan cost: 3,840 грн · ≈ 3.8 UAH per 1 UAH paid
Losses are shown at the lower bound — as if returns were free. “Could win back” assumes a +3.5 pp uplift, a hypothesis we test in a pilot with a control group; it is not a guarantee.
Example calculation for a shop with 1,200 COD parcels
- refusals per month
- 168
- 1,200 × (1 − 0.86)
- shipping losses — lower bound
- 16,800 UAH
- 168 × (80 + 20)
- losses if returns are paid
- 30,240 UAH
- 168 × (80 × 2 + 20)
- missed margin
- 42,840 UAH
- 168 × 850 × 30%
How the loss calculator works: the formulas
What you enter
- N — cash-on-delivery or payment-control parcels per month;
- p — your pickup rate;
- order — average order value;
- margin — your margin in percent;
- shipping — one-way delivery cost (80 UAH by default) and packaging (20 UAH).
How much refusals cost you
refusals per month = N × (1 − p)
shipping losses ≥ refusals × (shipping + packaging)
shipping losses ≤ refusals × (shipping × 2 + packaging)
missed margin = refusals × order × margin
The lower bound assumes returns are free for you; the upper bound assumes you also pay for the return trip. Return terms depend on your contract and Nova Poshta tariffs — check them in your account.
How much you could win back
served parcels = N × 0.8 (20% is the control group)
extra collected = min(u, 1 − p) × served parcels
benefit = extra collected × (refusal cost + order × margin)
service price = max(990, served parcels × plan rate)
net benefit = benefit − service price
Here u is the expected uplift in pickup rate. The default is 3.5 pp, and it is a hypothesis, not a promise: only a pilot with a control group shows the real uplift for your shop.
Example calculation
Shop: N = 1,200, pickup rate 86%, average order 850 UAH, margin 30%, shipping 80 + packaging 20 UAH.
| Metric | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Refusals per month | 1,200 × 0.14 | 168 |
| Shipping losses (minimum) | 168 × 100 | 16,800 UAH |
| Losses with paid returns | 168 × 180 | 30,240 UAH |
| Missed margin | 168 × 850 × 0.3 | 42,840 UAH |
| Served parcels | 1,200 × 0.8 | 960 |
| Extra collected (u = 3.5 pp) | 0.035 × 960 | 33.6 |
| Benefit | 33.6 × (180 + 255) | ≈ 14,600 UAH/mo |
| Auto plan cost | 960 × 4 | 3,840 UAH |
That is roughly 3.8 UAH of benefit for every 1 UAH spent on the service — if the hypothesis holds in the pilot. See plans on the pricing page.
Why losses are bigger than they look
Outbound shipping
You have already paid to ship a parcel that the buyer never collected.
Return
Depending on your contract and Nova Poshta tariffs, the return may cost another delivery.
Packaging
Box, filler and warehouse time — money you won’t get back.
Frozen stock
While the parcel travels there and back, the item is out of circulation and can’t be sold.
Questions about the loss calculator
How accurate is the calculator?
It gives an estimate from your average numbers. For exact losses based on your real shipments, use the free pickup-rate audit.
Why are losses shown as a minimum?
We use the lower bound — the scenario where returns are free. If you pay for returns, losses are higher; the calculator shows that number too.
Where does the 3.5 pp uplift come from?
It is the hypothesis the product is built on. We test it in a pilot with a control group and never promise you will get exactly that.
Why is the benefit based on 80% of parcels?
20% of buyers stay in the control group permanently so the effect can be measured. We don’t remind them and don’t bill for their parcels.
How can I cut losses on returns?
First find out your exact losses, then remind buyers in time: on day 2 of storage and before paid storage begins. See how Rampo does it on the how it works page.
What is the 180 UAH refusal cost?
Shipping there and back at 80 UAH each plus 20 UAH packaging — the default value. Replace it with your own numbers if they differ.
Want an exact number instead of an estimate?
Send a 4-column export and within 1 business day get your pickup rate and losses in hryvnias based on your real shipments.